My current view on the market is that there is around 66% chance we pump up to ~$5500 – $6000. Let me explain that by showing a confluence targets that all say the same thing.
First thing is the total market cap on the weekly in traditional candlestick vs heiken ashi. As you can see, the 9 on the heiken ashi is 1 candle later than on the traditional candlesticks. As many expected BTC to retrace after the previous week’s run, this 9 on the heiken ashi that started last monday (8th April) might be the reason we are still edging up.
Current resistance is at the 128 MA (red) and I would like to see it test the 50 MA (orange) and the upper band of the descending channel, which is around 10 – 20%. Keep in mind that this week still has around 4 days which is a window of opportunity for the candle to wick into the resistance and dump back before the candle closes on 15th of April. A 50 MA and 128 MA death cross is also about to happen. The resistance also coincides with a previous high liquidity zone.
BTC however is slightly different: On traditional candles, the 9 came last week while on heiken ashi it’s still on an 8(!). The pump last week sets us up for another 2 or 3 candles with a green TD count unless we somehow close below the red market line on the TOTAL charts and the black line on the BTC chart (sub ~$4500). This could potentially lead to a nice and completed 9 on the heiken ashi chart, another week or 2 of bullish price action. BTC also found support on the 128 MA on the traditional candle chart. Deathcross about to happen here too.
Because we broke through the resistance and liquidity zone of ~$4300 with such convincing strength makes me believe that we will continue to hit the 50 MA (orange) and the blue zone (~$5500) and maybe even extend it into the purple zone (~$6100) where the macro resistance and liquidity are. The Adam&Eve from Dec – April worked out pretty well in the end.
ETH is interesting too. The traditional candles had it’s 9 last week and is now on a 1 while the heiken ashi is on a 3. Here I’d like to point out something that you as a trader should notice while the code does not. You see the red 1 three week ago on the heiken ashi. That candle closed 3 dollars or ~2% lower than the green 2 7 weeks ago. This margin of difference is for me to small to switch between a weekly green to a weekly red candle. The red 1 should therefore imo be a green 6. That means the count never stopped and continue to a green 3 or in our adjusted view, a green 9 this week.
I’d like to see ETH hit the purple resistance and liquidity area which coincides with the Adam&Eve target marked by the black shitty drawn lines and blue arrows. Because we are somewhat half way the weekly candle, the move up should happen within 7 days at max if this scenario plays out. That gives the candles room to spike up this week or early next week then followed by a drop from the significant resistance and TD count.
See above the 3 Day charts for Total, BTC and ETH. The main take away from these 3 charts is that the slow creeping up movement of the Total and BTC could be explained by the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the brown 50 MA (brown). I made the same analysis yesterday but updated it today 10th April where BTC and Total were still struggling against both resistances. Now 1 day later both seemed to have passed the Ichimoku resistance and are entering the cloud, the 50 MA break should follow soon imo. With multiple MA’s coming down, I’d like to see a test of at least the 128 MA (red_ and maybe maybe maybe maybe touch the 200 MA (purple).
For ETH that’s a slightly different scenario where after breaking out of this descending channel, it is looking to test the resistance BTC and Total are facing now, the Ichimoku and 50 MA ~$220. With the TD count the same as BTC if you count out the red 1 of two weeks ago on the weekly and 3 day chart. Also notice how the volume spikes up almost double compared to the recent weeks and months.
At last the 1 day charts of BTC and ETH. Main take away from the last two charts are the trend fib extensions. I drew the macro fibs from every since we dropped and the local fibs of our most recent pump and retrace. The colour marked areas both have a fib resistance of the macro and local fibs.
Current prices on Bitstamp:
- BTC : $5250
- ETH : $180
- BTC : Up to +7,5% ~$5500 +- $150
- ETH : Up to +15% ~$210 +- $10
- BTC : Between ~12,5% – 20% – $5900 – $6300 +- $200
- ETH : Between ~25% – 30% – $230 – $260 +- $20
I’m decently confident in the primary targets but less confident in the secondary ones.
While everyone is turning bullish slowly, I still am convinced that we should head back to the lower $4000. We will not break the severely tested $6000 – $6300 resistance that acted as support for the first half of 2018. This is the last push up before I will scale heavily into shorts.
I also love fractals. Copy, paste and fit. The absolute values of the fractals do not have to match the current values, the important part is the patterns which could give you an edge in finding the direction of the market. BTC and ETH down here.
Published by: CptZiyi