One of the things I enjoy most about crypto (besides the obvious making money thing) is that I find it to be a really good form of brain exercise.  When I have downtime away from work and family, I enjoy spending as much time as I can looking at charts to discover where price may go, and more importantly why price may go that way.  The key to learning more about TA and developing a trading plan that works is to plot out some predictions on your charts, then go back and review if you were correct or not.  I also keep a detailed trading journal that maps out my plan of attack…details like cost of entry, position size, reason why the trade was entered, and profit target info I record and review regularly.
If you can understand why you were right or wrong, you will be several steps ahead of the pack.
Today, I am going to review my XEM and XRP calls from last week, and go into an analysis of one of my bigger holdings, ICON.
First, let’s look at the daily chart on XEM/BTC found on the bittrex exchange.

For a quick review I set up entry zones, and take profit zones last week, based on the fact that we were getting higher lows and this could indicate some bull momentum.  In order to find the entry zones I mapped out a FIB and set up my zone of interest between the .382 and .236 retracement levels from the low on Sept 26 to the high of the wick on Oct 2.
On Oct 11 we saw a 8% dump that fell right into my entry zone and for the last week we’ve noticed price hanging out right around the .236 zone.  I set three buys (laddering into your positions is a very, very good thing to get into the habit of….we will discuss this in further detail soon) which were all filled.  My stop level is intact, and we are currently trading just below my entry point.  This doesn’t really worry me too much…my plan is to risk 13% for a 26% profit (at least), so right now my strategy is to sit tight, keep an eye on the price, pay attention to my alarm set at my stop loss point.  If I cash out profits on another trade I may consider buying more to further lower my entry;  the key with this trade is to be patient.
Looking back, I could have had a much better entry had I not made a mistake on drawing my FIB levels.  For clarity, I’m going to overlay what I should have done in purple to help illustrate what would have made this a perfect entry.

Had I picked the low of the wick on Sept 12, my FIB levels would have been much lower, and I would be in a modest profit if those entry levels were set.  Do I feel bad about it?  Hells no!  No one can ever predict the exact bottom/top of price movements.  It’s all about setting levels and ranges inside those levels to make your entries and exits.
Now, onto XRP/BTC on Binance.

In review, I noticed a common zone with a long term FIB and shorter term FIB around the .236 zone.  I also noted the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, and that price may drop because of this.
This trade so far has worked out nicely for me.  I set a buy zone at the top of my zone of interest (here I managed to catch the bottom, I had buys lower so I unfortunately didn’t get the size I was hoping for).  Price bounced of my interest zone and I’m about 14% up as I write this.  I have since moved my stop loss to break even, and I’m looking at taking profits near the previous highs of the head and shoulders formation.  If this works out, I would be looking at a 40%+ gain…not bad!  If I managed to get in with more size, I would be considering taking some profits of the table now (nothing wrong with 14% in a bear market).  I will continue to raise my stop loss as price increases as I keep a close eye on this trade.

Time for a quick peek at the coin that has probably taught me the most important lesson of my trading life thus far.  Let’s pull up the weekly ICX/BTC on Binance.

One word…nasty.  Price has declined almost 90% so far this year, leaving those who bought the first couple weeks it hit Binance holding heavy bags.  Full disclosure, I got in during the ICO so I’m technically not at a loss with my holdings, but I did miss a huge opportunity to make a massive gain had I sold back in Dec/Jan.  I remember having a sell order ready when it was in the $10 range, I then doubted it was the right move and choose to not take profits due to greed.  Never again!
If you are unaware of the fundamentals behind this project, take some time to look into what they are doing.  I personally don’t believe this is a “shitcoin” and I do believe this project will win over the long term, but let’s take a look at the daily and see what opportunities we may find.

Looks to me like the floor was established mid August, and ICX had a nice rally for the rest of the month.  It has since retraced to the .236 level, and is ranging up to the .5 FIB retracement.  It feels to me like this is a accumulation phase before price decides to take off.  I’m not looking at adding to my position just yet…I have a good chunk of my stack in ICX and would prefer to diversify into other coins right now.  That said, ICX looks to be trading inside a uptrend channel and one may be able to sell high and buy back lower to accumulate more coins.
Here’s the 4hr chart to better explain…

Right now it is consolidating after a nice run, and I’m thinking there is support around the .382 area and we may see a bounce here.  If it doesn’t get support here, I would be watching the .236 and the 950 sat price zone.  If ICX stays bullish I would expect to see a lift in price to test the top of the channel, if it breaches these levels it will probably find support in the 850 area.
How I’m playing this:  Right now I’m holding tight.  I do have a stop loss set in place in the high 900s to low 1000s (this changes from tighter if I’m in front of the computer and able to act if it triggers, to wider if I’m heading to bed and unable to act).  I don’t want to get stopped out on a wick and have this thing run away on me, and I don’t want this to dump again down to the 700s without being into btc and being able to buy more at a lower price.  I do notice this is trending up currently, and after a huge 10 month dump and flatline this project really has potential to make some decent gains.
I’ve marked some important levels based on FIBs and previous support and resistance.  I have alarms set at these levels, and will be taking profits and buying back retracements if they go in that direction.
One thing I learned re setting stop losses…avoid even numbers, be very mindful of previous support and go under important FIB levels.  The goal is to set a stop loss to protect your investment in case price dumps, a mistake is when stops are set at points where price may reverse.  Trust me, the one time it really sucks to pick a bottom is when you do it via your stop loss price!

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