It has been a very choppy last couple weeks for BTCUSD and altcoins. After a massive drop on February 24th, BTC took it’s time by consolidating between ~$3700 – $3900 (Bitstamp). For three weeks BTC remained neutral and difficult to read until a couple days ago when it confidently pushed through $3950. It’s currently consolidating between ~$3900 – $4050 and probably looking to test ~$4200 – $4400 somewhere next week.
I took a fresh BTCUSD chart (Bit stamp) and drew the first things I saw:
- Support and Resistance
- Trend lines
BTC broke out of the ascending triangle (blue and green line) which is bullish PA. The top of the ascending triangle was formidable resistance for several times (blue crosses) and now that we broke it, has turned into support (blue check). The underlying green line has been good support (green checks) while the red line is starting to form resistance (red crosses). It currently looks bullish with the only obstacle being the resistance line. We might get to see another touch of the support line before a break out. The target of the triangle is indicated by the blue arrows and should end somewhere around ~$4350 but I would give it a range between $4200 – $4400 just to be safer.
Taking a look at the 1D chart for a bigger picture view of BTC and the market. First thing I did was mark zones of interest with colours. The red zone is our primary resistance since BTC has not traded above it since November 2018. Once we cross the red zone, I’d like to see us range in the green zone for a while before breaking out, retesting the top green zone and head for the blue zone of ~$5500.
Big if because breaking through the red zone will be hard but PA has painted an Adam & Eve pattern below the red zone. The target of the Adam is marked in the red and green arrow, both around ~$1200. Within the Adam & Eve there are patterns to find. First half of both Adam and the Eve part could be seen as a falling wedge, the Eve could be an inverse head and shoulders on its own. By testing mid ~$4000, we make a Higher High and Lower Lows which I would love to paint a giant rising wedge into ~$5500
The blue zone is the mid-term liquidity target until April/May. Spring has been historically relatively bullish. (Don’t quote me, doing this from memory). With the drop from $6000, we entered the accumulation zone. The majority of average people have lost fate there and have been shaken out. What’s next is to shake out the upper echelon of people, the more crypto savage people. You do this by climbing back up to around $5500 and drop back to low $3000 – $4000. This way only those that endure everything (Hodlers) and long term traders survive. This view is in line with events like the CBOE dropping BTC futures until the summer, or even bigger picture, fractals, of BTC spanning over years.
Published By: CptZiyi